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Picture of DrStrangelove
Registered: March 13, 2002
Posts: 3477
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Real, Not real, What do you think? I've got my own opinion, and it's got some interesting information attached to it. But first, I'd like to hear your opinion.
Registered: June 01, 2003
Posts: 6
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I agree !
Picture of djmagnusa
Registered: January 18, 2003
Posts: 1110
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The whole global warming issue is something that I find very interesting. But one of the problems is a lot of people are speaking out of lack of knowledge. You have scientists saying that man is inducing global warming and others who say it is a natural event and if you ask most serious scientists they say the issue is by no means settled. I'm not saying that we should continue using fossil fuels and such because their other reasons besides global warming that bother me. America has the highest case of Asthma(hope I spelled it right) it has ever seen, not to mention if anybody goes down into L.A. the Smog is what I would call gross and I can hardly breathe. Also we have to be practical here, sure we have a lot of other means to produce energy but they are not cost effective. I'm sure your saying that’s not right but that’s how the world works. In particular lets look hydrogen fuel cells which has a very promising outlook. The simple truth is that it cost way too much to buy one of the cars at the present time; I believe the custom car that was released in Japan cost more than $500,000. Not mention the car has problems in cold weather, and it would cost an arm and a leg to replace all the gas station with hydrogen stations.
Also a big problem is that the oil companies are buying out all the companies that are developing all these technologies and leaving the technology in their vaults so they never shed light anymore. But as I see it, the Japanese car companies will solve this problem because Japan has to import almost 100% of its oil, so they would much rather make a machine that relies on one of the most abundant resources, Hydrogen. So I say keeping spending money on the hydrogen fuel cell research, which if we spend more money it should be cost effective in about 10-20 years and the world should be a much better place, even if global warming is a crock or not. Not to mention Hydrogen fuel cells leaves us with one of the most precious resources after the hydrogen is used as fuel, I’m talking about good old H2O.
Registered: January 04, 2003
Posts: 7
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our Earth, it is going to be more polluted.
the environmental polltion is more serious.Which causes?People. Yes, people cut the trees , gas from factories makes the air and the rivers polluted,the vehicles,etc..So , we need more severe solutions to this problems.educate people the consciousness of the pollution,and disadvantages of this, grow plants,etc.
Picture of Jookly
Registered: December 19, 2002
Posts: 1708
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that is some great info sinope.

We really do need to change in a huge way to protect the earth. I think that we need a brand new way to create the type of energy we use. No more oil! I have been reading a little bit on a theory called zero-point energy. It sounds crazy but the concept is basically to take all of the energy around us and convert it into usable energy. This would solve so so so many problems. Here is the article i read about it, sorry it is so long.

-----------------------------------------------
This paper was written and courteously shared by Dr. H. E. Puthoff of the Institute for Advanced Studies, 1301 Capital Of Texas Highway S., Suite B 121, Austin, Texas 78746, (512) 328-5751

Quantum Fluctuations of Empty Space : A New Rosetta Stone of Physics?

In a recent article in the popular press (The Economist, January 7, 1989, pp. 71-74) it was noted how many of this century's new technologies depend on the Alice-in-Wonderland physics of quantum mechanics, with all of its seeming absurdities.

For starters, one begins with the observation that classical physics tells us that atoms, which can be likened to a miniature solar system with electron planets orbiting a nuclear sun, should not exist.

The circling electrons should radiate away their energy like microscopic radio antennas and spiral into the nucleus. But atoms do exist, and multitudinous other phenomena which don't obey the rules do occur.

To resolve this cognitive dissonance physicists introduced quantum mechanics, which is essentially a set of mathematical rules to describe what in fact does happen. But when we re-ask the question, "why didn't the electron radiate away its energy?" the answer is, basically, "well, in quantum theory it doesn't."

It's at this point that not only the layman but some physicists can begin to feel that someone's not playing fair. I say only some physicists because the majority of working physicists are content simply to use quantum rules that work, that describe (if only statistically) what will happen in a given experiment under certain conditions.

These are the so-called "logical positivists" who, in a philosophical sense, are like the news reporter whose only interest is the bottom line.

There are nevertheless individuals here and there who still want to know why the electron didn't radiate, why Einstein's equations are in this form and not another, where does the ubiquitous zero- point energy that fills even empty space come from, why quantum theory, and perhaps the biggest question of all, how did the universe get started anyway?

Page 1 Surprisingly enough, there may be answers to these seemingly unanswerable meta-level questions. Perhaps even more surprising, they seem to be emerging, as a recent book title put it, from "Something called Nothing" (1), or to put it more correctly, from empty space, the vacuum, the void.

To comprehend the significance of this statement, we will have to take a detour into the phenomenon of fluctuations with which quantum theory abounds, including the fluctuations of empy space itself.

Before the advent of quantum theory, physics taught that any simple oscillator such as a pendulum, when excited, would eventually come to rest if not continuously energized by some outside force such as a spring. This is because of friction losses in the system.

After it was recognized that quantum theory was a more accurate representation of nature, one of the findings of quantum theory was that such an oscillator would in fact not come to total rest but rather would continue to "jiggle" randomly about its resting point with a small amount of energy always present, the so-called "zero-point energy."

Although it may not be observable to the eye on your grandfather clock because it is so minute, it is nonetheless very real, and in many physical systems has important consequences.

One example is the presence of a certain amount of "noise" in a microwave receiver that can never be gotten rid of, no matter how perfect the technology. This is an example which shows that not only physical devices such as pendulums have this property of incessant fluctuation, but also fields, such as electromagnetic fields (radio waves, microwaves, light, X-rays, etc.).

As it turns out, even though the zero-point energy in any particular mode of an electromagnetic field is minute, there are so many possible modes of propagation (frequencies, directions) in open space, the zero-point energy summed up over all possible modes is quite enormous; in fact, greater than, for example, nuclear energy densities. And this in all of so-called "empty" space around us. Let us concentrate on the effects of such electromagnetic zero-point fluctuations.

With such large values, it might seem that the effects of electromagnetic zero-point energy should be quite obvious, but this is not the case because of its extremely uniform density.

Just as a vase standing in a room is not likely to fall over spontaneously, so a vase bombarded uniformly on all sides by millions of ping pong balls would not do likewise because of the balanced conditions of the uniform bombardment.

The only evidence of such a barrage might be minute jiggling of the vase, and similar mechanisms are thought to be involved in the quantum jiggle of zero-point motion.

However, there are certain conditions in which the uniformity of the background electromagnetic zero-point energy is slightly disturbed and leads to physical effects.

One is the slight perturbation of the lines seen from transitions between atomic states known as the Lamb Shift (2), named after its discoverer, Willis Lamb.

Another, also named for its discoverer, is the Casimir Effect, a unique attractive quantum force between closely-spaced metal plates.

An elegant analysis by Milonni et. al. at Los Angeles National Laboratory (3) shows the Casimir force to be due to radiation pressure from the background electromagnetic zero-point energy which has become unbalanced due to the presence of the plates, and which results in the plates being pushed together.

From this it would seem that it might be possible to extract electrical energy from the vacuum, and indeed the possibility of doing so (at least in principle) has been shown in a paper of that same name by Robert Forward (4) at Hughes Research Laboratories in Malibu, California.

What does this have to do with our basic questions? Let's start with the question as top why the electron in a simple hydrogen atom doesn't radiate as it circles the proton in its stable ground state atomic orbit.

This issue has been re-addressed in a recent paper by the author, this time taking into account what has been learned over the years about the effects of zero-point energy. (5) There it is shown that the electron can be seen as continually radiating away its energy as predicted by classical theory, but simultaneously absorbing a compensating amount of energy from the ever-present sea of zero-point energy in which the atomm is immersed, and an assumed equilibrium between these two processes leads to the correct values for the parameters known to define the ground-state orbit.

Thus the ground-state orbit is set by a dynamic equilibrium in which collapse of the state is prevented by the presence of the zero-point energy. The significance of this observation is that the very stability of matter itself appears to depend on the presence of the underlying sea of electromagnetic zero-point energy.

With regard to the gravitational attraction that is described so well by Einstein's theory, its fundamental nature is still not well understood. Whether addressed simply in terms of Newton's Law, or with the full rigor of general relativity, gravitational theory is basically descriptive in nature, without revealing the underlying dynamics for that description.

As a result, attempts to unify gravity with the other forces (electromagnetic, strong and weak nuclear forces) or to develop a quantum theory of gravity have foundered again and again on difficulties that can be traced back to a lack of understanding at a fundamental level.

To rectify these difficulties, theorists by and large have resorted to ever-increasing levels of mathematical sophistication and abstraction, as in the recent development of supergravity and superstring theories.

Taking a completely different tack when addressing these difficulties in the sixties, the well-known Russian physicist Andrei Sakharov put forward the somewhat radical hypothesis that gravitation might not be a fundamental interaction at all, but rather a secondary or residual effect associated with other (non- gravitational) fields. (6)

Specifically, Sakharov suggested that gravity might be an induced effect brought about by changes in the zero-point energy of the vacuum, due to the presence of matter.

If correct, gravity would then be understood as a variation on the Casimir theme, in which background zero-point-energy pressures were again responsible.

Although Sakharov did not develop the concept much further, he did outline certain criteria such a theory would have to meet such as predicting the value of the gravitational constant G in terms of zero-point-energy parameters.

The approach to gravity outlined by Sakharov has recently been addressed in detail, and with positive reults, again by the author. (7)

The gravitational interaction is shown to begin with the fact that a particle situated in the sea of electromagnetic zero-point fluctuations develops a "jitter" motion, or ZITTERBEWEGUNG as it is called.

When there are two or more particles they are each influenced not only by the fluctuating background field, but also by the fields generated by the other particles, all similarly undergoing ZITTERBEWEGUNG motion, and the inter-particle coupling due to these fields results in the attractive gravitational force.

Gravity can thus be understood as a kind of long-range Casimir force. Because of its electromagnetic unerpinning, gravitational theory in this form constitutes what is known in the literature as an "already-unified" theory.

The major benefit of the new approach is that it provides a basis for understanding various characteristics of the gravitational interaction hitherto unexplained.

These include the relative weakness of the gravitational force under ordinary circumstances (shown to be due to the fact that the coupling constant G depends inversely on the large value of the high-frequency cutoff of the zero-point-fluctuation spectrum); the existence of positive but not negative mass (traceable to a positive-only kinetic-energy basis for the mass parameter); and the fact that gravity cannot be shielded (a consequence of the fact that quantum zero-point-fluctuation "noise" in general cannot be shielded, a factor which in other contexts sets a lower limit on the detectability of electromagnetic signals).

As to where the ubiquitous electromagnetic zero-point energy comes from, historically there have been two schools of thought: existence by fiat as part of the boundary conditions of the universe, or generation by the (quantum-fluctuation) motion of charged particles that constitute matter.

A straightforward calculation of the latter possibility has recently been carried out by the author. (8)

It was assumed that zero-point fields drive particle motion, and that the sum of particle motions throughout the universe in turn generate the zero-point fields, in the form of a self-regenerating cosmological feedback cycle not unlike a cat chasing its own tail.

This self-constistent approach yielded the known zero-point field distribution, thus indicating a dynamic-generation process for the zero-point fields.

Now as to the question of why quantum theory. Although knowledge of zero-point fields emerged from quantum physics as that subject matured, Professor Timothy Boyer at City College in New York took a contrary view.

He bagan asking in the late sixties what would happen if we took classical physics as it was and introduced a background of random, classical fluctuating fields of the zero-point spectral distribution type. Could such an all-classical model reproduce quantum theory in its entirety, and might this possibility have been overlooked by the founders of quantum theory who were not aware of the existence of such a fluctuating background field?

(First, it is clear from the previously-mentioned cosmological calculation that such a field distribution would reproduce itself on a continuing dynamic basis.)

Boyer began by tackling the problems that led to the introduction of quantum theory in the first place, such as the blackbody radiation curve and the photoelectric effect. One by one the known quantum results were reproduced by this upstart neoclassical approach, now generally referred to as Stochastic Electrodynamics (SED) (9), as contrasted to quantum electrodynamics (QED).

Indeed, Milonni at Los Alamos noted in a review of the Boyer work that had physicists in 1900 thought of taking this route, they would probably have been more comfortable with this classical approach than with Planck's hypothesis of the quantum, and one can only speculate as to the direction that physics would have taken then.

The list of topics successfully analyzed within the SED formulation (i.e., yielding precise quantitative agreement with QED treatments) has now been extended to include the harmonic oscillator, Casimir and Van der Waals forces and the thermal effects of acceleration through the vacuum, to name a few.

Out of this work emerged the reasons for such phenomena as the uncertainty principle, the incessant fluctuation of particle motion, the existence of Van der Waals forces even at zero temperature, and so forth, all shown to be due to the influence of the unceasing activity of the random background fields.

There are also some notable failures in SED, such as transparent derivation of something as simple as Schrodinger's equation, which turns out as yet to be an intractable problem.

Therefore, it is unlikely that quantum theory as we have come to know it and love it will be entirely replaced by a refurbished classical theory in the near future.

Nonetheless, the successes to date of the SED approach, by its highlighting of the role of background zero-point-fluctuations, means that when the final chapter is written on quantum theory, field fluctuations in empty space will be accorded an honored position.

And now to the preeminent question of all, where did the Universe come from? Or, in modern terminology, what started the Big Bang? Could quantum fluctuations of empty space have something to do with this also?

Well, Prof. Edward Tryon of Hunter College of the City University of New York thought so when he proposed in 1973 that our Universe may have originated as a fluctuation of the vacuum on a large scale, as "simply one of those things which happen from time to time." (10)

This idea was later refined and updated within the context of inflationary cosmology by Alexander Vilenkin of Tufts University, who proposed that the universe is created by quantum tunneling from literally nothing into the something we call our universe. (11)

Although highly speculative, these types of models indicate once again that physicists find themselves turning again and again to the Void (and the fluctuations thereof) for their answers.

Those with a practical bent of mind may be left with yet one more unanswered question. Can this emerging Rosetta Stone of physics be used to translate such lofty insights into mundane application?

Could the engineer of the future specialize in "vacuum engineering?" Could the energy crisis be solved by harnessing the energies of the zero-point sea?

After all, since the basic zero-point energy form is highly random in nature, and tending towards self-cancellation, if a way could be found to bring order out of chaos, the, because of the highly energetic nature of the vacuum fluctuations, relatively large effects could in principle be produced.

Given our relative ignorance at this point, we must fall back on a quote given by Podolny (12) when contemplating this same issue.

"It would be just as presumptuous to deny the feasibility of useful application as it would be irresponsible to guarantee such application."

Only the future can reveal the ultimate use to which Mankind will put this remaining Fire of the Gods, the quantum fluctuations of empty space.
-----------------------------------------------

And there you have it, the future of man kind.
for those of you that didnt want to read the whole thing here is a highlight
quote:
From this it would seem that it might be possible to extract electrical energy from the vacuum, and indeed the possibility of doing so (at least in principle) has been shown in a paper of that same name by Robert Forward (4) at Hughes Research Laboratories in Malibu, California.


-Jookly
Picture of sinope
Registered: August 05, 2002
Posts: 679
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there was an awesome article about global warming in the newest issue of rolling stone. There was some data compiled from the National Center for Atmospheric Research(Boulder, CO), the National Assesment, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that i'd like to share. not that anyone really cares, but:

*last year was the second hottest year in recorded history. 1998 came first.

*Temperatures are expected to rise faster in the next century than they have in the last ten millennia.

*by 2090, Chicago will feel like Texas. The U.S. will be on average 5 to 9 degrees hotter than today; 18 degrees hotter in Alaska.

*Increase in air pollution because of the g.h. gases that further trap even more CO2. and so on. and so on.

*more heat related deaths- up to five fold in New York and other major cities. increase of insects and insect related diseases are in store also.

*by mid-century, 35% of the snowpack in the Rocky Mountains and 50% of the snowpack in the Cascades will be gone.

*by 2090 a one to three foot increase in sea level in this century, submerging New Orleans, Gulf Islands National Seashore, other barrier islands along the atlantic, and parts of Seattle.

*Frequent storm surges, and floods caused by higher sea levels will cause more rain storms which will send chemical runoff into fresh water supplies (which, incidentally, will litterally be evaporating rapidly).

*drought. especially in the warmer months.

*A massive wipe out of endangered species\ plants\ecosystems\forests\coral reefs (and other soon endangered species) due to the lack of thier numbers and land they need to adapt to this radically changing environment. then more BECAUSE of that.

*this is just domestic. famine and drought are already realities for underdeveloped countries. it will get worse. Africa, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh will see the worst of it.

*by 2050, it could cost the world 300 billion per year because of damage to property, infrastructure, crop failures, bank and insurance losses, landslides, erosion, etc. etc.

*Further thawing of the tundra (a giant carbon warehouse), and further collapse of Artic ice sheets.

*the list goes on and on.

We must do something. please post something, anything to show that you are concerned. If we do not adapt to our environment, there will be nothing left. This is our cause. no war. no election. we must perserve life. everything else will follow.thanks for reading. pete
Picture of DrStrangelove
Registered: March 13, 2002
Posts: 3477
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First off, I'd like to apologize for my tardiness. My ISP aparrently had a huge screw-up involving (quote) "technical difficulties...We are attempting to reestablish service as soon as possible." Blah blah blah, in any case, I haven't been able to get on the net for some time now.

I've got my info from various sorces over time, but if I were to give you a good site that summed it up, here it is: globalwarming.org

There are rebuttles to most of your points, penmagic. I'd type them out personally but I'm short on time.

And BTW, my novel does involve global warming to a limited extent wink
Registered: January 16, 2002
Posts: 559
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everyone keeps askin of info from us but they arent providing it.
Picture of Aimee
Registered: August 19, 2001
Posts: 180
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Will somebody please give me a refernence, a site or book or something, where I can find these scientists that claim global warming isn't real, or that it is but humans don't affect it, or whatever else some of you are claiming? Thanks.
Picture of penmagic
Registered: April 22, 2002
Posts: 279
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Here's some of my research:
It is real:
"Weather hottest in 1,000 years
United Kingdom scientists announced the first three months of this year were the warmest in 1,000 years (Guardian, April 26). The three-month temperature average worldwide was 0.71°C higher than the 1961-90 average.
The report, produced by the government and climate change researchers, also predicted climate-induced flooding, rising sea levels and droughts for Great Britain. By 2080, temperatures in southern England will reportedly mirror those in Bordeaux, France, although summers will be hotter and drier everywhere. Based on a predicted three-foot rise in sea level, the government has already started work on replacing the Thames barrier and strengthening the 100-mile stretch of sea defenses around the Thames estuary."

"Researchers attribute the meltdown to global warming, noting that while area flooding is not a new concept, flood frequency has increased during the past three decades."

Plants do help:
"Meanwhile, some American scientists are looking to farms and forests to offset carbon emissions. Forests and farmlands could absorb an estimated 3.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide in a process called carbon sequestration, according to a U.S. Energy Department researcher. Through carbon sequestration, fast-growing trees and grassy crops remove carbon from the air by using it to grow or storing it in the soil (Reuters, April 24)."

USA is the largest producer of greenhouse gases:
"Neither the House nor the Senate legislation includes fuel-efficiency standards for motor vehicles nor mandatory reporting of carbon emissions, even though the United States is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases."

Got all this info. on a website called 'SafeClimate', you should be able to find it on your search engine but I found it on AskJeeves which means the URL's HUGE so I'm not going to type it in.
This site also shows a graph of climate change, you are right about the rate of change being the fastest just before 1940, but it's definitely been increasing at a pretty steady rate throughout the century all the same, and it's showing no signs of stopping.
The site also states that CO2 emmisions need to be reduced by a huge amount if we're going to stop global warming from affecting eco-systems more than it has already.
If you want a list of the ways it's affecting the environment I can do that too.
I'm sure that SafeClimate is a reliable source of information, as the information on that website was gathered from many different sources. It's unlikely to just be 'one person's reasoning and point of view' because of this, and their evidence is definite. I trust this website. If you want to give your own verdict of it then visit it.

I think you've been getting most of your information from maxpages. I'm not so sure of this website, it lists only one source of information and appears to be more 'one person's reasoning and point of view' than a really reliable report on the causes of global warming.
Could be correct, of course, but I trust SafeClimate far more, it backs up what I've been hearing for years.

That enough reasoning for you? I don't think you will change your mind though as you don't seem the type. By the way I've checked out your profile- writing a novel? what a co-incidence me too. Nice to find we have something in common dearie.
smile
penmagic
Registered: August 25, 2001
Posts: 123
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it certainly won't hurt us to stop polluting and destroying habitats even if it isn't real. it's part of moving forward as a species. i question the relavance of your query

-all due respect
-Phoebe cool
Registered: January 16, 2002
Posts: 559
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yo uwant research on because you just agreed with me...

and what i was saying before is that we are increase production of co2 different sulfur ions and floural carbons wich and reducing the amounts of photosynthesizing beings. That makes a larger amount of CO2 left in the air. We might not be increasing the amounts of greenhouse gases and other things a lot but a little can go a long way.
Picture of DrStrangelove
Registered: March 13, 2002
Posts: 3477
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liltrumpetgurl- I read you post about algea, however I asked if you could direct me to a site that documented signifigant occurances of this. I'm not being sarcastic, mocking, or derogatory in any way, I'd simply like to know and read it for myself.

penmagic- America's also got the largest industry in the world, and we've got a low production:CO2 output ratio. So there! razz

Photosythesis only occurs during the daytime when the plant has sunlight shining on it. At night, they release CO2 and take in Oxygen, as does virtually all life today. In the end, a slight amount of net oxygen gain occurs. The rainforests, vast as they are, are not essential to maintaining our level of O2, or our level of CO2.

The main source of phosythetic oxygen comes from algea. Luckily, for this discussion, I agree that we should avoid chemical and particulate pollution of the oceans and watersheds. My problem here is the, at least in my opinion, wasteful crusade against FURTHER limiting CO2 production. Again, let me say that I support neither dropping current regulations, nor clearcutting the rainforest. Your concentrating in the wrong areas. What must be eliminated is soot, SO2, and other high risk contaminents.

However, America is NOT the main producer of greenhouse gasses. Mother Nature is. Annually, humans only produce 2% of all greenhouse gasses. (shock and horror! big grin ). Based on EPA data of course.

And still more: In the past century, over two thirds of the temperature increase occured before 1940, and therefore before the current worldwide increase in CO2 expulsion. I'll have to say that I misposted below where I stated that in 1900, CO2 production was 7 times higher. That number was not only for CO2, but for particulates as well.

penmagic, I'm also well versed on this issue and look forward to an intersting discussion. Please elaborate on your research so we can continue.

And as an afterthought: monkeyman- Stuff it.
Registered: May 01, 2002
Posts: 6
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YOUR A SICK MAN AND YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. LEAVE US ALONE mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad mad
Registered: January 16, 2002
Posts: 559
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read my post that said we are killing algal blooms, right. Which is a reason we should also watch how we polute water. Trees are being destructed in places other than the rainforests too. And since we have so much volcanic emissions and increased production of greenhouse gasses (and CO2 isnt the biggest but I would rather not breathe it) there should be more trees and algae to sythesize oxygen.
Registered: January 16, 2002
Posts: 559
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I did know that it wouldnt happen over night but my point was that if we all ignore that it is happening and dont move it will be a problem, and after the ice caps melt too much there will be less land and the living capaicty decreases while we still have reproduction and there is famine and rampant epidemics! well it could happen that way.
Picture of penmagic
Registered: April 22, 2002
Posts: 279
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Cutting down the rainforests is closely related to the subject of global warming because:
A rainforest is composed of plants, plants photosynthesise. Photosynthesis converts CO2, which is one of the gases causing global warming, into oxygen. This combats the greenhouse effect.
This is why the subject of cutting down the rainforests is closely related to the subject of global warming.
You seem to be turning this into a confrontation.
roll eyes
I could write countless essays on this subject, my ability to reason and my knowledge about environmental issues go beyond doubt. Do not attempt to combat me on this, mere worm, you do not know what you are dealing with.
razz
cool

And in response to the original subject, which is whether mankind is causing global warming at all: I can now say I have done some research, and can confirm that mankind is the main cause contributing to it, without doubt (although there may be other causes as Dr Strangelove pointed out). It is true that there will always be natural climate changes on earth, but that this isn't one of them.
Also, that America is the main producer of greenhouse gases on this planet, which may be why some americans on this site are unwilling to acknowledge that global warming exists a