Life After The Oil Crash


What is "Peak Oil"?

All oil production follows a bell curve, whether in an individual field or on the planet as a whole. On the upslope of the curve production costs are significantly lower than on the downslope when extra effort (expense) is required to extract oil from reservoirs that are emptying out.

For the past 150 years, we have been moving up the upslope of the global oil production curve. "Peak Oil" is the industry term for the top of the curve. The peak will last for a year or so, at which time we will go down the very steep downslope. The further we go down the slope, the more it costs to produce oil, and its cousin, natural gas.


When will Peak Oil occur?

The most wildly optimistic estimates indicate 2020 will be the year in which worldwide oil production peaks. Generally, these estimates come from the government.

A more realistic estimate is between the year 2004-2010. Unfortunately, we won't know that we hit the peak until 3-4 years after we actually hit it. Even on the upslope of the curve, oil production varies a bit from year to year. It is possible that the year 2000 was the year of peak oil production, as production has dipped every year since.

The energy industry has quietly acknowledged the seriousness of the situation. For instance in an article entitled “A Revolutionary Transformation,” the president of Exxon Mobil Exploration Company, Jon Thompson stated: "By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today".


That sounds pretty bad, but I don't drive an SUV or anything. Even if gas prices get high, I could probably still make ends meet. Why should I be concerned?

Almost every current human endeavor from transportation, to manufacturing, to electricity to plastics, and especially food production is inextricably intertwined with oil and natural gas supplies.

Commercial food production is oil powered. All pesticides are petroleum based, and all commercial fertilizers are ammonia based. Ammonia is produced from natural gas.

Oil based agriculture has been fantastic for food production. Oil allowed for farming implements such as tractors and food storage and transport systems such as refrigerators and trucks. As oil production went up, so did food production. As food production went up, so did the birth rate. As the birth rate went up, the demand for food went up, which increased the demand for oil.

Unfortunately, we are at a point where the demand for food/oil has been rising exponentially, and is expected to continue to do so. Oil (food) production, however, is about to drop dramatically.

When Peak Oil occurs, food production will plummet because of the cost of fertilizer will soar. The cost of storing (electricity) and transporting (gasoline) what little food that is produced will also soar. Unless you grow all your own food on your own local, self sustained farm, you will have to deal with the food shortage.

Oil is also required for nearly every consumer item, water supply pumping, sewage disposal, garbage disposal, street/park maintenance, hospitals & health systems, police, fire services, and national defense.

Thus, the aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond how much you will pay for gas. Simply stated, you can expect: war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiens.

This is known as the post-oil "die-off". The term "die-off" captures perfectly the nightmare that is at our doorstep. For a humorous portrayal of the die-off, read chapter 3 of Michael Moore's most recent book, "Dude, Where's My Country?"

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Originally posted by madpuffinkeeper:

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I ALREADY SAID. I didnt reference his **** you jackass.. he didnt write what i posted.. but in one of his books he talks about peak oil in a comical way..

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For a humorous portrayal of the die-off, read chapter 3 of Michael Moore's most recent book, "Dude, Where's My Country?"

Let's define a couple of terms here.

Reference (v): "To mention in a reference; refer to."
Example: You referenced Michael Moore's propaganda.

Jackass: "A foolish or stupid person; a blockhead"
Example: You just made yourself look like a jackass.

"Reference" is not traditionally a verb. The word you are looking for is "refer."

Too bad for everyone that electric cars were taken out of the market because the companies were threatened with lawsuits from oil companies. And we all know why this.

why stop wars when they reflect on us

Well many people say that when the oil finishes the world will be over but thats a false statement because the new hydrogen powered cars is taking place and natural gas cars has been in VEnezuela since many years back, I think that when the oil finishes we will just continue living our life just like when an animal is extinct and no one gives

Simply agreeing with you.

word, that wasnt supposed to be directed at you or anyone in particular. Just voicing my oppinion.

Niether am I jookly.

There are dozens of other sources for power on earth. I am not very worried.

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Reread all of your posts Celtic and you will see why I assume that you are a commie

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Hah. I never complained oil was bad. I said oil is too much of a money industry to suddenly stop.

Reread all of your posts Celtic and you will see why I assume that you are a commie. You are all insane. Is it not an incentive for "the rich, nasty, oil tycoons" to invest in alternative energy? I can't wait until we singlehandedly take the oil form the greedy arabs in their cartel, but until then we should use the oil. I am not quite sure what you are all proposing we do. I only hear complaints and whining about "oh no oil is bad...we should ban oil...oil will be death of us..oh my God, oil companies want to kill people." Calm down and wait, alternate sources of power will happen when the market says so - which will be at the perfect time. Just wait and see.

WHen the oil is gone, I will ride on horseback to work/school/whatever. Or buy a camel or a spaceship.

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You do not recognize the fact that we will evolve and over-come and oil shortage with the things you people praise so much but seem to have so little faith in.

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It's true. But it'll happen in a looooong time. The very rich people that own all these oil businesses will not let the industry fall until there is no single droplet of oil left on Earth.

You liberals have proven in this debate that you hold society stagnent. You do not recognize the fact that we will evolve and over-come and oil shortage with the things you people praise so much but seem to have so little faith in.

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Originally posted by jam_18:
when the oil is gone....poor us....

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The people who say that are going to be the ones to go "extinct." We will have to learn how to harness ethenol alcohol and other forms of alternative power.

when the oil is gone....poor us....

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You liberals love all those things so much and claim they are the solution to all of our problems, with the exception of coal and nuclear power, but when it comes crunch time you people claim they are nothing compared to oil. Why is this? I believe it is because you people have no idea what you believe.

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They are nothing. The oil industry makes to much $$$$$$ to die suddenly. When it does, it'll be years from now.

Its called a hyrdrogen fuel cell. Its called nuclear power. Its called hybrids. Its called coal. Its called solar power. Its called hydro-power. Its called corn oil. Call it whatever you want, but those are the solutions to an endless oil 'famine'.

You liberals love all those things so much and claim they are the solution to all of our problems, with the exception of coal and nuclear power, but when it comes crunch time you people claim they are nothing compared to oil. Why is this? I believe it is because you people have no idea what you believe.

There are several prgorams that have been developed that have made the need for oil negotiable, but they will not be economically sound till oil is depleted.

Are you intentionally reviving dead threads?

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Originally posted by bauhaus:
every war has been faught over religious reasons... I think we all know what needs to be stopped before we can end wars.

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hahah so true

If you guys can't construct a blade out of stone and strap it to a stick or sharpen a stick into a point, then you're all screwed.