so this whole train of thought started as an IM conversation between fina and myself, to save me retyping it all I'm gonna post it verbatim.

Aguagon (2:06:57 PM): I'm still amazed we haven't found the guy by now, seriously
KevlarRus (2:07:05 PM): I know
Aguagon (2:07:05 PM): you'd think we all we have at out disposal...
Aguagon (2:07:09 PM): *with all
KevlarRus (2:07:23 PM): his nose is like a fucking toucan beak and he's what? 6'5"?
KevlarRus (2:07:28 PM): how hard is that to find?
KevlarRus (2:07:48 PM): I honestly think he's dead
Aguagon (2:08:00 PM): it's definitely possible
Aguagon (2:08:13 PM): the conspiracy theory nutcases are gaining a little more credibility every day on this one
KevlarRus (2:08:50 PM): mmhmm
KevlarRus (2:08:55 PM): think about it though
KevlarRus (2:09:11 PM): the way we've bombed the cave systems in afghanistan
KevlarRus (2:09:18 PM): if we did get him
KevlarRus (2:09:22 PM): we'd never know it
KevlarRus (2:09:40 PM): and it's A-Qaeda's best intrests not to tell any one
KevlarRus (2:09:48 PM): because it's good propaganda for us
KevlarRus (2:10:15 PM): and bad for them
Aguagon (2:10:22 PM): yeah, that's true
KevlarRus (2:10:26 PM): also
KevlarRus (2:10:35 PM): the could martyr him
KevlarRus (2:10:37 PM): *they
KevlarRus (2:10:45 PM): and that would be fantastic propaganda
KevlarRus (2:10:47 PM): but
KevlarRus (2:10:53 PM): him being killed
KevlarRus (2:10:59 PM): wouldn't be good in comparison
KevlarRus (2:11:09 PM): to him making an attack and dying
KevlarRus (2:11:14 PM): or his body at least
KevlarRus (2:11:21 PM): if he died in a collapse
KevlarRus (2:11:29 PM): they can't retrieve the body
KevlarRus (2:11:39 PM): so all good propaganda from him dying is gone
Aguagon (2:12:48 PM): yeah
Aguagon (2:13:20 PM): if he is dead, his handlers might just be waiting to try to fabricate a more nobel death
KevlarRus (2:13:33 PM): another possability
KevlarRus (2:14:04 PM): again the big deal is having his body, people won't believe shit unless they can see it
KevlarRus (2:14:22 PM): that goes for his own soldiers as well as US/Coalition/UN forces
Aguagon (2:14:59 PM): yeah, exactly
KevlarRus (2:15:13 PM): so for my idea
KevlarRus (2:15:29 PM): unless they can postion his body somewhere
KevlarRus (2:15:36 PM): complete with suicide vest or car
KevlarRus (2:15:40 PM): somewhere public
KevlarRus (2:15:48 PM): you know a good target
KevlarRus (2:15:53 PM): they can't martyr him
Aguagon (2:16:37 PM): I wonder if it would be worth it to them to stage an alleged unsuccessful attempted attack
KevlarRus (2:16:47 PM): depends
KevlarRus (2:17:02 PM): these people are motivated purely on religion and symbolism
KevlarRus (2:17:17 PM): having their leader go out in a blaze of glory is a big deal
KevlarRus (2:17:21 PM): dude
KevlarRus (2:17:25 PM): I just had a though
KevlarRus (2:17:28 PM): *thought
KevlarRus (2:17:48 PM): do you know who che guevara was?
Aguagon (2:17:55 PM): yeah
KevlarRus (2:18:08 PM): do you know how he died?
Aguagon (2:18:18 PM): nope
KevlarRus (2:18:39 PM): he was leading a communist revolutionary group in bolivia
KevlarRus (2:18:46 PM): the current goverment
KevlarRus (2:18:54 PM): obviously didn't like the idea
Aguagon (2:19:06 PM): was he executed?
KevlarRus (2:19:10 PM): nope
KevlarRus (2:19:13 PM): he vanished
KevlarRus (2:19:31 PM): just simply vanished with out a word or a trace
Aguagon (2:19:36 PM): hmm
KevlarRus (2:19:48 PM): it crippled the revolutionary movement in bolivia
KevlarRus (2:20:11 PM): so I would say that it's plausible
KevlarRus (2:20:16 PM): wait
KevlarRus (2:20:23 PM): hold on need to finish on che
KevlarRus (2:21:03 PM): it came out later that bolivian special forces captured che and slashed his throat in the jungle
KevlarRus (2:21:32 PM): the then disfigured him by removing his hand feet and head and buried the body
KevlarRus (2:21:47 PM): (to prevent later identification)
Aguagon (2:21:48 PM): oh, wow
KevlarRus (2:22:00 PM): uh huh
KevlarRus (2:22:08 PM): so they never found his body either
Aguagon (2:22:48 PM): yeah, so we may in fact never know with Osama
KevlarRus (2:23:03 PM): it did more damage to the bolivian communist group to have their leader vanish, his body never to be found
KevlarRus (2:23:12 PM): then for him to be killed in a public manner
KevlarRus (2:23:35 PM): so it makes you wonder... how sneaky do you think the US goverment can be?
Aguagon (2:24:12 PM): well, my main problem with theories like this is that my faith in our government in these matters is very limited
Aguagon (2:24:32 PM): we can't keep much a secret, it seems
KevlarRus (2:24:46 PM): hmmm
KevlarRus (2:26:03 PM): do you know what goes on in the CIA? or at Area 51? or Bangalore Naval Base? or in DARPA?
KevlarRus (2:26:12 PM): or the NSA at Fort Mead?
KevlarRus (2:26:34 PM): our media
KevlarRus (2:26:37 PM): makes it appear
KevlarRus (2:26:46 PM): that they know alot more then they actually do
KevlarRus (2:26:50 PM): because that sells papers
KevlarRus (2:26:57 PM): so to speak
Aguagon (2:27:10 PM): that's true
KevlarRus (2:27:23 PM): if the goverment really wants to keep a secret
KevlarRus (2:27:28 PM): it's usually kept
KevlarRus (2:29:37 PM): dude
KevlarRus (2:29:46 PM): we need to start a thread on this
Aguagon (2:30:04 PM): go for it
Aguagon (2:30:14 PM): this is freaky shit
KevlarRus (2:30:29 PM): *insert x-files theme here*
Aguagon (2:30:30 PM): I always look to how fast pedophiles get outed in our government and stuff
Aguagon (2:30:45 PM): but...that's the result of partisanship, basically
Aguagon (2:31:26 PM): and the fact that we don't like pedophiles, of course
KevlarRus (2:31:33 PM): mmmhm
KevlarRus (2:33:43 PM): I think I'm gonna post this verbatim
Aguagon (2:34:00 PM): fine by me

so what do you all think? is he dead? or is he just really that good at hiding? did the cia make him vanish? or did his kidneys give out?

quote:

And of course radical terrorists would be perfectly candid with a member of the hated Western society...

From 10 to 12 years ago they probably would, during the early and mid 90's most radicals in the region where more concerned with overthrowing their own governments than with killing westerners.
Now a days you're right as to their treatment of westerners but before 9/11 and the US invasion of Afghanistan most radical's ignored americans and westerners in general.

And of course radical terrorists would be perfectly candid with a member of the hated Western society...

I'll have to give the book a read, though.

quote:

Al-Qaeda is indeed an actual organization. The evidence for that isn't too hard to find.

About 5 years ago that was correct but currently Al-Qaeda as most people imagine it doesnt exist. Here's a very interesting book I read on the matter recently:
Al-Qaeda by Jason Burke
He's a prize winning middle east correspondent for the London Observer and has worked in the region for over a decade, having actually lived with afghan mujahideen and conducted interviews with radicals currently catalogued as terrorists.
I also thought of Al-Qaeda as you do but after reading this I changed my mind.
I'd also like to point out that I did question the book's veracity and it's possible ideological purposes, but unlike political writers that deals with middle east issues currently this is a book about actual islamic terrorism, not about US foreign policy. There is little to gain if anything by saying that people's conception of Al-Qaeda is erroneus.

I agree with speed, but for a different reason. Al-Qaeda is indeed an actual organization. The evidence for that isn't too hard to find.

At any rate, Bin Laden is no longer the main enemy. Even should he turn up dead, there are plenty of adherents to radical versions of Islam to take up the cause. It's gone way beyond a single person or organization. Any disenfranchised martyr-to-be can strap on high explosives and detonate themselves in a public place.

The enemy now is the very idea al-Qaeda is based upon. It's the violent version of Islam that Bin Laden and others practiced that causes all the problems. Not Islam in general, as some mistakenly believe, but the version of Islam that calls for the deaths of innocents.

But what do I think happened to Bin Laden? I think he's gone underground somewhere. The Middle East is a big place and there are plenty of groups that would be willing to harbor him. He's accomplished his goal of goading the United States into attacking sovereign nations, so he doesn't need to risk any appearances.

Doesn't make a difference, there is no such thing as Al-Qaeda as you picture it. Al-Qaeda is the loose ideal followed by thousands of groups the world over on how to carry out anti american terrorist acts, it's not a supernetwork of interconnected cell's like most people seem to believe.

It doesn't matter if he's alive or dead, his purpose was to show the muslim world that the US can be fought and he's accomplished it.

He must be dead. We have'nt heard much about him since 2004.

It's definetely possible. But to be completely honest, he's not bothering me right now so I don't really care whether he's dead or not. If they find him, great. If they don't, oh well; you win some, you lose some.