Not only did Obama take the state but Obama and Edwards both beat Comrade Clinton which honestly I did not see coming. One of them maybe, but both?

On the rebulican side Mike Huckabee pulled in from behind the pack and took Iowa though I honestly doubt he'll get the nomination.

thoughts?

And it's Hillary Clinton for the win in New Hampshire. And just when I'd finished my "Iowa shapes everything" speech.

This, mainstream media, is what a real surprise looks like.

I don't think the iowa and NH caucuses are going to be all that influential this time around. The front runners keep varying to a certain degree. Going into the race there weren't any obvious candidates that people felt were guaranteed to become nominated. The front runners have been changing frequently. It's really hard to tell who is actually going to come out on top, which I guess is a pretty good thing since people will probably have to listen more intently to what everyone is saying instead of settling with whoever the overwhelmingly favored candidate is..at least that's what I'm hoping

I agree with you there. I'd much prefer a system where each state held its primary on the same day. That way, politicians would be forced to recognize that there are, in fact, 49 other states, and all of this campaign strategizing would become less important. Maybe then, people would focus more on the issues.

Hmph. One state shouldn't make that big of a difference long before the actual election. It defeats the very idea of "representative democracy".

quote:

Originally posted by clpo13:
The results of the caucuses don't really mean that much in the long run anyways. The winners aren't guaranteed their respective party's nomination.

This is true, but as long as everyone thinks of Iowa as the make-or-break state, it will be. I underestimated Iowa's power this year: the media swarm that grew out of it completely altered the national picture. Eight days ago, I would have put good money on Clinton and Giuliani being the two nominees, even guessing neither would take Iowa. Now, I'd put the same good money on the Dems fielding Obama and the GOP fielding either Huckabee or McCain.

Last nationwide Gallup poll taken before Iowa (Republican):
Giuliani: 27%
Huckabee: 16%
McCain: 14%

Nationwide Gallup poll released today (Republican):
Huckabee: 25%
Giuliani: 20%
McCain: 19%

And, even more dramatically:

Last nationwide Gallup poll taken before Iowa (Democrat):
Clinton: 45%
Obama: 27%
Edwards: 15%

Nationwide Gallup poll released today (Democrat):
Clinton: 33%
Obama: 33%
Edwards: 20%

(Source)

What a difference a state makes.

Prediction for New Hampshire tonight: Obama for the Dems, McCain for the GOP.

I don't think I'll ever understand why Iowa is so important and continues to be so. The results of the caucuses don't really mean that much in the long run anyways. The winners aren't guaranteed their respective party's nomination.

I have. I preferred his autobiography, though.

quote:

Even if you're unaware of Obama's policy plan, there's no denying that he's incredibly inspirational-that's probably drawing voters to him.

I heard him in an interview of Meet The Press months ago and I must say this statement is very true. I'm not very aware of his polices but he left me rather in awe by his character. Incidentally, has anyone read his book The Audacity of Hope? I've been wanting to get my hands on it for some time now.

quote:

Also, I bet many voters are unaware of their candidates' specific plans and stances.

Sadly, as much as I'd like to change that, it remains true.

quote:

Even if you're unaware of Obama's policy plan, there's no denying that he's incredibly inspirational-that's probably drawing voters to him.

And he's younger and a lot more hip than all of the other candidates, plus he's a great public speaker and knows how to get a crowd (positively) riled up. All of those probably contributed to his votes, as well as to why the younger crowd likes him so much.

In other caucus results: Republican in Wyoming went to Romney by a landslide. I'm dismayed. Giuliani, McCain, and Huckabee didn't even get any votes, though the caucus there is confusing, since Fina tried to explain it last night, but he was confused even to do that.

quote:

I am a little worried that Obama only won because he's the "in" thing on College Campuses, not because of what he plans to do and what his stances are.

There may be some of that but the fact that students took the time to caucus, not just vote says something. Caucusing requires a much greater commitment. Also, I bet many voters are unaware of their candidates' specific plans and stances. Polls show that voters support the candidate they like the most. Even if you're unaware of Obama's policy plan, there's no denying that he's incredibly inspirational-that's probably drawing voters to him. There's a reason independents and republicans are voting for him.

quote:

Part of Giuliani's problem may have been that he wasn't actually IN Iowa on the day of the caucus. He made stops in NH and FL yesterday, but not IA. Personally, I think last minute presence certainly makes a difference, particularly with all the other candidates in IA (I think they were all there...)

He gave up on Iowa months ago. And he would not have been able to well there even if he had campaigned-he's too socially liberal and as Huckabee's win showed, evangelical voters matter there. Giuliani's strategy rests on skipping the early primary states and winning Florida on Jan. 29 and using that momentum to do well on super, super Tuesday. It's a risky strategy and it depends too much on indecision in the states preceding FL.

Kucinich will likely stay in the race until the winner takes the official majority of delegates, like he did in '04. Much like Ralph Nader, I think he deeply, honestly believes that he's the only viable candidate out there. And much like Ralph Nader, he's wrong. As for Gravel, God only knows. If being completely shunned by the media hasn't turned off his presidential ambitions, maybe being shunned by the actual voters won't, either.

Now for my rant about the media, part two: ABC barred Kucinich from their debate last night and Fox News barred Paul from their debate tonight. Both are unforgivable. Kucinich has won many a post-debate poll, and anyone who's paying any attention to the '08 race knows him as a respectable second-tier candidate. And Paul? He's also won many a post-debate poll, and he got 10% of the vote in Iowa. I have no idea what Fox News is claiming as their qualifications for inclusion, but the real qualification is obvious: be a Neo-Con. I can't express how much it pisses me off that a few TV networks single-handedly have the power to constrict our presidential choices to a few options, and we're letting them get away with it completely on their own terms. At least the New Hampshire Republican Party pulled their sponsorship of the Fox debate...

quote:

Originally posted by ampmaster:

quote:

Obviously, I want the Ds to win

You forget, this football came has more then two teams (and it's all QBs...)

L, L send the normal scum to hell L, L recrossing that del, del go libertarians!

Libertarian Party: No Longer Voting For the Lesser of Two Evils

Besides Dems always slash the military budget, do you really want me to lose my job GL?

Yeah, I know there are independent parties, and I 'm fine with that. In fact, in an idealistic society, I would be part of some obscure, independent party. However, right now I'm more interested in stabalizing our country and, quite frankly, I have more faith in the Dems to do that. However, I do have *great* respect for independents, libertarians, etc, I just, unlike you, do choose the lesser of two evils. And no, of course I don't want you to lose your job. However, as I'm morally opposed to war except in certain circumstances... But still, we aren't in a Utopian society so I see your point, of course.

quote:

Kucinich and Gravel, according to the New York Times on-line, got no votes whatsoever, and didn't drop out.

Ah. That's incredible. I guess they're just holding on to some remnants of hope. Though Kucinich has some grand ideas, he's a little too upfront, radical, and passionate about them to even get consider. He doesn't play politician well. :/ And I'm afraid I view Gravel as slightly senile...

I wonder if they'll drop out after the NH caucuses tonight? We'll have to stay updated of course. Sorry for the long post.

quote:

Actually, didn't Dodd and Biden officially drop out last night?

Yes, and though Dodd was technically 0%, he had votes, whereas Biden was the low percentile, but above 0%.

Kucinich and Gravel, according to the New York Times on-line, got no votes whatsoever, and didn't drop out.

quote:

Obviously, I want the Ds to win

You forget, this football came has more then two teams (and it's all QBs...)

L, L send the normal scum to hell L, L recrossing that del, del go libertarians!

Libertarian Party: No Longer Voting For the Lesser of Two Evils

Besides Dems always slash the military budget, do you really want me to lose my job GL?

Part of Giuliani's problem may have been that he wasn't actually IN Iowa on the day of the caucus. He made stops in NH and FL yesterday, but not IA. Personally, I think last minute presence certainly makes a difference, particularly with all the other candidates in IA (I think they were all there...)

Actually, didn't Dodd and Biden officially drop out last night?

Oh, I was surprised w/ the Clinton results, for sure. Though I am not a Clinton supporter, I had my money on her. I think its unfair to say that Edwards "beat" her, though, as he had only 1% of the votes difference. Obama was a bit of a surprise to me, but that could be because I'vb only watched CNN and the livestream online for the past week, as Aguagon pointed out what with the mainstream media recently. However, Huckabee (who wasn't "supposed" to win) wasn't so much of a surprise. He'd been pulling ahead in a few other places/polls in previous weeks, hadn't he?

I am so outrageously excited for the election season. It might even rival '04! I'm pulling for an EdwardsObama ticket for the Ds, and maybe a HuckabeeRomney for the Rs (I don't know, though, Romney insane intensity is rather intimidating/discouraging). Obviously, I want the Ds to win, but still... I swear I watch election coverage like a football game.

I'm surprised the Democrats with 0% hadn't dropped out the race when I last checked (last night).

You should have seen how many students here caucused. The cafeteria was insanely crazy up until 15 minutes before those caucusing and not registered Democrats in Iowa had to be there. (Where I go to school, all the Democrats caucused on campus, and all the Republicans caucused off campus.)

The only worrisome part is there were at least people here who caucused because they were told to caucus, they didn't really know who to caucus for, or they caucused for someone because someone they admired was caucusing for them. I am a little worried that Obama only won because he's the "in" thing on College Campuses, not because of what he plans to do and what his stances are.

Oh, and I know nothing about Huckabee (I'm not Party-affiliated, and he didn't stop by campus), but I am SO GLAD he beat Romney. Hopefully, Giuliani, like Fina said, will pick it up.

I have a solid hope for Ron Paul still he's got a solid grass roots movement and has pulled impressive numbers cash flow wise for contributions from the voting public.
I predict the congressman from texas will do rather well in the south and midwest almost surely outstriping huckabee [/shameless optimism]

Contrary to what the media is making them out to be, these results really aren't too surprising (I wouldn't have predicted Edwards beating Clinton, but hell, it was basically a 3-way tie going in).

The media (by which I mean CNN and MSNBC) is pissing me off tonight. A lot. By (a) acting like this is the biggest surprise in the universe and (b) fighting to make a nationwide Obama sweep a self-fulfilling prophecy. When you look at where things stand state-by-state at the moment, Clinton has a sizable lead in the vast majority of states, but the media seems all too willing to call the game over eons before halftime. Maybe I'm just bitter because my pick, Biden, finished with about 1% after consistently polling around 5-8%.

To me, the biggest surprise of the night was Giuliani's atrocious numbers. I knew he'd do poorly, but less than 4%? And behind Ron Paul? Wow. I still have full confidence in Giuliani's ability to rebound, but it may well take him until the Nevada caucus (and if he doesn't win that, you can stick a fork in him).

Now we get to see if Obama-mania sweeps to New Hampshire. Huckabee-mania -- mark my words -- will not stretch out of the South and the Midwest. But the South and the Midwest are important, so he may yet be a real contender.

This is all history in the making, and fun as hell to watch unfold (yes, I know I'm a geek... )