will it really hit as hard as they say? or is it just a media scare? scientist are saying it may kill 150 million people(three percent of human population)

the spread of h5n1 is global in scope as bird can easily catch it from each other,HOWEVER it's extremely rare in humans, and transmission rate is LOW,

While H5N1 is mutating into variations which infect species not previously known to carry the virus, not all of these variations can infect humans. Scientists suspect that H5N1 is hard to spread from human to human because the virus infects cells deep in the lungs (and other organs as the disease progresses), not nasal passage cells. Because of this, the virus doesn't shed from the nose (or other upper respiratory cells), so sneezing and coughing don't spread the disease.[1]



how ever a highly pathogenic varient of h5n1 is spreading around the world, most bird that to contract the virus don't even get sick from it. however h5n1 is also spread through domestic poultry, both through movements of infected birds and poultry products, and the use of infected poultry manure as fertiliser or feed. Humans with H5N1 have typically caught it from chickens, which were in turn infected by other poultry or waterfowl.

While H5N1 is mutating into variations which infect species not previously known to carry the virus, not all of these variations can infect humans. Scientists suspect that H5N1 is hard to spread from human to human because the virus infects cells deep in the lungs (and other organs as the disease progresses), not nasal passage cells. Because of this, the virus doesn't shed from the nose (or other upper respiratory cells), so sneezing and coughing don't spread the disease.[1]



how ever a highly pathogenic varient of h5n1 is spreading around the world, most bird that to contract the virus don't even get sick from it. however h5n1 is also spread through domestic poultry, both through movements of infected birds and poultry products, and the use of infected poultry manure as fertiliser or feed. Humans with H5N1 have typically caught it from chickens, which were in turn infected by other poultry or waterfowl.

Avian Flu, a.k.a "Bird Flu" is caused by the virus: Orthomyxoviridae Influenzae This specific strain has Hemagglutonin antigen #5 (H5), and Neuridimase antigen #1 (N1). H5N1, as it is more formally known is one of the most pathogenic Orthomyxoviruses ever seen, with the 1918 strain (H2N2) being the next in line. The virus causes a massive multi-systemic assault which lays waste to almost every component of the human body. The virus has a CFR of 50-80%, close to that of Filoviridae Ebolavirus Sudan's CFR! However, on the other hand, it as a very low transmission rate.


Duck are the natural resevoir for ALL influenza viruses, which happen to inhabit the Duck's lower digestive tract. The virus is spread through DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE FECES OF INFECTED BIRDS, putting hunters, defeather-ers, farmers, and the like, at greatest risk for infection. Eating properly cooked poultry CANNOT spread the virus.


The virus has been reported in human infections as far as Romania, Turkey, and Egypt.


The virus was beginning to cause trouble at least A YEAR BEOFRE AMERICAN AUTHORITIES ACKNOLEGED THE VIRUS' PANDEMIC THREAT. So, when the pandemic does occur, the populus will have no one to blame but themselves and the government. Because, if we HAD intervened early enough, the virus could have been stopped, but alas, it is now too late for mankind.


It is not a matter of IF, IT IS A MATTER OF WHEN! The virus has spread too far to be able to be stopped by mass culling as it was in 1997. Given its widespreaded-ness, and the speed at which your average virus multiplies (which can be modeled by the equation: f(x) = 100,000^(x)) it is only a matter of time befor the "H" antigen shifts enough to allow for direct person to person transmission


ALL BIRDS HAVE THE ABILLITY TO CARRY THE VIRUS IN THIER INTESTINES.


Ducks are asymptomatic, meaning that even when they are infected with H5N1, they do not get sick. This allows them to spread the virus wherever they go.



Some statistics:


The 1918 Influenza virus had a CFR of approx. 2%, killed AT LEAST 100 MILLION PEOPLE!


The approximate deaths from an H5N1 pandemic would be at least 8 BILLION people! and there aren't even that many humans!!!

Here is a table of values for: f(x) = 100,000^(x)
(When X is the number of viral generations, each lasting about 2 hours, and Y is the number of viruses, any one of which could posses the correct mutation for man-to-man transmission.)

x|f(x)
———
0| 1
1| 100,000
2| 10,000,000,000
3| 1,000,000,000,000,000
4| 100,000,000,000,000,000,000
5| 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

So, after about 10 hours there are 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 viruses!

I dont believe the avian flu is gonna kill all of us..... but still, it is a hugh "potential" threat to the U.S. if it does hit america 2 million people could die, and then a economic faliure could possibly follow.... so like this is worst case like the dude said above, but should definily be taken seriously....

You do realize that the estimated total deaths for a worst case scenario is only a few million, right? And that there are 6.4 billion humans on the planet? It wouldn't even make a dent in our population. Even if it did, that's totally normal. Pandemics affect large populations all the time, and considering how overcrowded we are, a little Mendelian bottlenecking might not be so horrible.

quote:

Give it a rest. Though many have tried, us humans have proven tricky to entirely kill off. I'm guessing we're safe.

don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Give it a rest. Though many have tried, us humans have proven tricky to entirely kill off. I'm guessing we're safe.

No. It doesn't.

In order for H5N1 to become a real threat, it not only has to be capable of spreading from human to human, it needs to become capable of propagating in the respiratory tract. It is currently spread by fecal matter, which means that it will quickly spread through bird populations under unhygenic conditions, will not easily spread between humans in developed countries. There is no absolute guarentee that the avain flu is going to undergo the mutations necessary for this to happen, but of course it would really suck if it did.

quote:

Don't get me wrong, H5N1 is a big problem, but not quite as big as people seem to think.

actually this virus...has the right genetic code to kill us all.

That's a worst-case scenario. This is the same sort of virus that caused the Spanish Flu pandemic during World War I, but that doesn't necessarily meant it will kill everyone. Only zombies are capable of that, and they're fictional, so you need not worry.

Don't get me wrong, H5N1 is a big problem, but not quite as big as people seem to think.